Range Expansion
Trading Order Out of Chaos
EURUSD tick data for the period 7th February 2016 to 12th February 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Equities mean-reversion works right now. And as part of Building Consistently Profitable Trading Systems it forms a key component. In this article we’ll present the final version of the mean-reversion system to form part of the trading toolbox, and the final portfolio. It’s the Larry Connor’s RSI2 strategy. And it’s based on the two concepts we covered in Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits:
- Looking for a series of down days
- Looking for reversion towards a short dated movi… Read more
I’ve been asked lots of questions as to how to determine the next moves in GBPUSD. There have been many arguments for a bottoming out at the current levels, as well as for a continuation given the strength of the downward move experienced post Brexit. In this article I’ll try to get a handle on possible outcomes, by looking at some fundamental indicators and see where they point to for sterling over the next couple of months. The longer term perspective will be more difficult to gau… Read more
A favorite investment technique that has been publicized widely is trend-following. Everybody has heard of the Turtle Traders, a group of novices trained by Richard Dennis in the art of channel-breakouts, a system developed decades earlier by Richard Donchian. In this article we will look at the current performance of trend-following in the Western futures markets, and see if we can’t find better performance in other markets. As previous mentor of mine always said: it’s not so much ab… Read more
As discussed in the articles on Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars, this indicator highlights the bars, and allows you to implement those trading strategies. The only input is an offset as to where to put the arrows indicating the bars in pips. This is best placed on an hourly chart. The indicator will loot at the previous 8 bars, and check to see if the first group of four hourly bars engulfs the previous four hourly bars. This is then rolled over with every new hourly bar.
Mean Reversion trading works for equities; and currencies. We saw in the last article how combining two simple ideas for equities produced a stable system over the last 30 years. Can we repeat a similar analysis for currencies? Yes! However, be warned. Currency trading is a different magnitude of difficulty to equity trading. Currency traders have had a real tough time since 2008 (take a look at the BTOP Barclay Hedge Currency Trader Index). As always it depends which pond yo… Read more
Kelly betting is an optimal approach to allocating capital to your system. In this article I want to show you how to apply this approach to your trading, and more importantly what kind of interesting questions you can answer using the ideas behind Kelly betting, in particular: “How long does it take to double my money?” First let’s start out with a simple example and progress to actual markets and trading systems. The example is as follows, and tends to be an interview question for a… Read more
This indicator will average the bid / ask spread over the last N ticks. The purpose is to be able to monitor the behavior of the currency pair during fast markets, such as occur before and during news announcements. It’s useful for indicating times of increased danger, and can be used as a possible flag to square positions. The parameters are:
- MA: the number of ticks to average the bid/ask spread over. The default is set to 30 ticks
- showTickCount: a boolean flag, which when set t… Read more
EURUSD tick data for the period 20th March 2016 to 25th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
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