US Baskets of EM and G10 currencies
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Trading Order Out of Chaos
Mean Reversion trading works for equities; and currencies. We saw in the last article how combining two simple ideas for equities produced a stable system over the last 30 years. Can we repeat a similar analysis for currencies? Yes! However, be warned. Currency trading is a different magnitude of difficulty to equity trading. Currency traders have had a real tough time since 2008 (take a look at the BTOP Barclay Hedge Currency Trader Index). As always it depends which pond yo… Read more
This week’s article is more tongue in cheek: do natural phenomena affect the markets? What we’ll be particularly looking at are the full moon, new moon, and solar eclipses, especially since we had one on the 9th March this year. Back in 2005 I wrote a similar article at Barclays Capital for the weekly quant newsletter we sent out to clients. It was a summer lull, and it seemed like a swell idea. The results back then indicated that it was the New Moon rather than the Full Moon that really imp… Read more
In previous articles I’ve written about the idea of Kelly betting or using leverage to really boost the growth of your returns. I’ve also shown how different fundamental components work together to create an FX Benchmark index. This article is slightly different. I want to keep it KISS: “Keep It Simple Stupid.” I will show you how to combine several instruments (three in actuality), which will create a Hedge Fund Benchmark. And then we apply leverage to this index, and see wha… Read more
EURUSD tick data for the period 6th March 2016 to 11th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
This XLS accompanies my guest article on RectitudeMarket.com describing the performance of short option strategies on EURUSD. It includes the relevant formulas and data so that you can replicate the results or apply them to your own option strategies.
In the previous article we set out to cover a new asset class: Bond investments. We saw how by including bonds together with stocks we could improve on our portfolio performance. Is this mixture still good given that we are now shifting in the interest rate cycle to a Bond Bear Market? In this article we go about calculating the Bond Index going back 120 years to answer this question. Here is a chart since 1960 of US 1 and 10 year rates: W… Read more
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