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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part III)

This is the third article in the series on trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I and Part II, we will look at trading the short signals for AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD. Let’s recap the results for the long side: We used hourly rolling bars to […]

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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part II)

This is the second article in the series of trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I, we will actually perform some backtests using the results we found in Part I. In Part I, we split up the analysis for long and short trades separately. Here we will keep […]

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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part I)

Many people ask if there are any particular technical setups that I like to look at and what the best way to trade them is. My all-time favorite heavily involves Support and Resistance levels, and using these as breakout levels. The art lies in finding them and then managing trades appropriately. In this article we’ll […]

Testimonials

I’ve been asked lots of questions as to how to determine the next moves in GBPUSD. There have been many arguments for a bottoming out at the current levels, as well as for a continuation given the strength of the downward move experienced post Brexit. In this article I’ll try to get a handle on possible outcomes, by looking at some fundamental indicators and see where they point to for sterling over the next couple of months. The longer term perspective will be more difficult to gau…
GBP, Brexit, and Fundamentals
It’s useful to be able to add a trailing stop to your trades.  Given I never got my head around the MT4 functionality I wrote this small EA, which does the job.  Place it on top of the currency chart and give in the number of pips by which it should trail your trades. You need to put it on currency charts for which you have trades.  So if you have USDJPY trades put the EA on an USDJPY chart. This EA will not trail stops for trades that have a non-zero magic number.  So if you have trad…
MT4 Trailing Stop Expert Advisor
This XLS accompanies the article on Effects of Lunar Phases and Solar Eclipses on Currency Markets. It includes the relevant astronomical data as well as the currency data and the backtest so that you can experiment with the data yourself.
Solar Eclipse Strategy Backtest
It’s only been the fourth trading day of 2016, but there is no shortage of surprises, volatility, and all round mayhem. Today the AUDUSD had two announcements which can be considered relevant. The first was at 00:30GMT, the Building Approvals number, and shortly after 01:15GMT the PBOC rate fixing for the CNY. The first announcement was followed by a slow 10 pip grind to the downside, followed by a retracement to 0.7084. The PBOC announcement was issued at 01:16GMT, on the back of which …
More on Market Dynamics: AUDUSD and the PBOC
In this week’s article I cover the right approach to benchmarking your performance using the standard risk measures out there.  In particular we’ll start out by outlining how the Sharpe Ratio relates to the usual performance measures such as Win/Loss ration or Return/Maximum Draw-Down ratios.  This will allow you to see if you are on track or not, and adjust your trading accordingly. The purpose is to put risk measurement into context and relate your trading statistics to optimal wealth accum…
Risk, Return, and Kill Ratios
High Frequency trading has become both the poster-boy and the scapegoat over the last couple of years in trading circles. It’s been seen as a sure-fire way of making money, as well as a sneaky way the flash-boys tax all the other participants in the market. In this article I want to cover some of the basics of High-Frequency Trading, as well as how it applies to trading from your “Living Room.” An example of such trading from your own private realm is the following P&L chart showing profits i…
High-Frequency Trading from your Living Room
This indicator will average the bid / ask spread over the last N ticks. The purpose is to be able to monitor the behavior of the currency pair during fast markets, such as occur before and during news announcements. It’s useful for indicating times of increased danger, and can be used as a possible flag to square positions. The parameters are:
  • MA: the number of ticks to average the bid/ask spread over.  The default is set to 30 ticks
  • showTickCount: a boolean flag, which when set t…
Average Bid/Ask MT4 Indicator
This week’s article is more tongue in cheek: do natural phenomena affect the markets? What we’ll be particularly looking at are the full moon, new moon, and solar eclipses, especially since we had one on the 9th March this year. Back in 2005 I wrote a similar article at Barclays Capital for the weekly quant newsletter we sent out to clients. It was a summer lull, and it seemed like a swell idea. The results back then indicated that it was the New Moon rather than the Full Moon that really imp…
Effect of Lunar Phases and Solar Eclipses on the Currency Markets
This is the third article in the series on trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I and Part II, we will look at trading the short signals for AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD. Let’s recap the results for the long side:
  • We used hourly rolling bars to identify the appropriate four-hourly patterns
  • Trading in the direction of the breakout was profitable
  • There was a sweet-spot for holding the trade for roughly 12 hours
  • After usi…
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part III)