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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part III)

This is the third article in the series on trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I and Part II, we will look at trading the short signals for AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD. Let’s recap the results for the long side: We used hourly rolling bars to […]

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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part II)

This is the second article in the series of trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I, we will actually perform some backtests using the results we found in Part I. In Part I, we split up the analysis for long and short trades separately. Here we will keep […]

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Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part I)

Many people ask if there are any particular technical setups that I like to look at and what the best way to trade them is. My all-time favorite heavily involves Support and Resistance levels, and using these as breakout levels. The art lies in finding them and then managing trades appropriately. In this article we’ll […]

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EURUSD tick data for the period 13th March 2016 to 18th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD, 20160313 - 20160318, Broker 1
An upcoming recession in the US is on everybody’s mind (at least that’s what Google Trends shows):
Trend of "US Recession" Search on Google
Trend of “US Recession” Search on Google
And with that bad news for the rest of us. To put that chart into context the last official recession according to the NBER was between December 2007 and June 2009. And the average duration between recessions since World War II has been five years, with the longest period being 10 years: between 1991 and 2001. So is it going to happen soon? Proba…
A US Recession or Not - Outlook and Friday's NFPs
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BEOB_MT4
As discussed in the articles on Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars, this indicator highlights the bars, and allows you to implement those trading strategies. The only input is an offset as to where to put the arrows indicating the bars in pips. This is best placed on an hourly chart.  The indicator will loot at the previous 8 bars, and check to see if the first group of four hourly bars engulfs the previous four hourly bars.  This is then rolled over with every new hourly bar.
Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars
This XLS accompanies my guest article on RectitudeMarket.com describing the performance of short option strategies on EURUSD. It includes the relevant formulas and data so that you can replicate the results or apply them to your own option strategies.
Short EURUSD Option Backtest Spreadsheet
Market timing refers to the fact that by judiciously choosing entry and exit methods in a given market you can out-perform buy-and-hold. The first question of course is why you should buy-and-hold in the first place. The idea stems from the equity markets.  Historically they have risen.  The famous chart of course is the S&P 500 over the last 65 years:
S&P 500 since 1965
S&P 500 since 1965
So why should this happen? Economic reasoning is behind this argument.  Long term macro and micro economic gro…
Market Timing
Following from the previous article HFT from Your Livin Room I’m going to show you what the EURUSD price data from the 21st January, 2016, looked like post the ECB interest rate announcement and press conference. The focus will be in particular on the consistency of the price streaming of a retail broker, and how that led to the profits in the previous article. More importantly how you can follow along at the next news bonanza, the FOMC. As always the ECB circus comes in two acts. First …
ECB Market Dynamics on 21st January, 2016