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Trading Currencies using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

In this post I want to cover one of the factors that enters into the creation of the benchmark index outlined in my Trading Approach. This factor is called Value, and provides an underlying fundamental reason for trading various currencies. To explain value let’s assume that the water company Evian sells an identical bottle of […]

Testimonials

Most people are familiar with the term ORB (open range breakout). It was popularized by Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout”, as well as the The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (Wiley Trading) by Mark Fisher. ORB uses the price range set at the start of a trading period to determine the future price moves, using a breakout-style approach. In this article we’re going to apply this principle to the FX market using a who…
How to Trade the Start of the Year: Guide to Stress-Free Positioning
In previous articles I’ve written about the idea of Kelly betting or using leverage to really boost the growth of your returns.  I’ve also shown how different fundamental components work together to create an FX Benchmark index. This article is slightly different.  I want to keep it KISS: “Keep It Simple Stupid.”  I will show you how to combine several instruments (three in actuality), which will create a Hedge Fund Benchmark.  And then we apply leverage to this index, and see wha…
Money Growth: Trade it Like a Hedge Fund
Following on from the previous post on ADP and slippage I’m writing up this brief note to share the pain, and hopefully get the point across: leave the News Alone Please. One of my systems that trades the EURUSD currency pairs actively, operates using stop-orders to enter the market and associated protective stops to limit the losses.  You might have guessed it’s a momentum based strategy.  The issue here is that when the market gaps, or is too thin, the orders won’t get executed.  And this …
Why Slippage Is Important -- Unemployment Impact on My Sanity
EURUSD tick data for the period 14th February 2016 to 19th February 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD , 20160214 – 20160219, Broker1
This XLS accompanies the article on Effects of Lunar Phases and Solar Eclipses on Currency Markets. It includes the relevant astronomical data as well as the currency data and the backtest so that you can experiment with the data yourself.
Solar Eclipse Strategy Backtest
Equity Mean Reversion
At last!  We’ve made it to the mean-reverting part of the series, starting with our focus on equities and their mean-reversion habits. So, here’s the deal.  We’re going to keep it simple, just like in the previous three posts, and start from the ground up.  Over the following series we’ll culminate in a simple, straightforward (and well known) system that still works. In detail for this article:
  • What do we mean by mean-reversion and how can we measure it?
  • What are some natural meth…
Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits
Following on in the series of Market Dynamics the NFPs presented a great opportunity to take a closer look at what happens during important news events. I’ve learned my lesson by now: don’t trade during news events. And this is especially true of stop orders in these situations. Price will just hop straight through. When it does the fill is awful, and the worst part, as happened on Friday: it reverts very quickly hitting any protective stops. The outcome? You book losses which could…
Market Reaction to NFPs on 8th January 2016
This is the third article in the series on trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I and Part II, we will look at trading the short signals for AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD. Let’s recap the results for the long side:
  • We used hourly rolling bars to identify the appropriate four-hourly patterns
  • Trading in the direction of the breakout was profitable
  • There was a sweet-spot for holding the trade for roughly 12 hours
  • After usi…
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part III)
Many people ask if there are any particular technical setups that I like to look at and what the best way to trade them is. My all-time favorite heavily involves Support and Resistance levels, and using these as breakout levels. The art lies in finding them and then managing trades appropriately. In this article we’ll focus on using Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars to identify support and resistance levels, and present the analysis that goes behind implementing such a system. Implementati…
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part I)