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Trading Currencies using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

In this post I want to cover one of the factors that enters into the creation of the benchmark index outlined in my Trading Approach. This factor is called Value, and provides an underlying fundamental reason for trading various currencies. To explain value let’s assume that the water company Evian sells an identical bottle of […]

Testimonials

Market timing refers to the fact that by judiciously choosing entry and exit methods in a given market you can out-perform buy-and-hold. The first question of course is why you should buy-and-hold in the first place. The idea stems from the equity markets.  Historically they have risen.  The famous chart of course is the S&P 500 over the last 65 years:
S&P 500 since 1965
S&P 500 since 1965
So why should this happen? Economic reasoning is behind this argument.  Long term macro and micro economic gro…
Market Timing
This indicator will average the bid / ask spread over the last N ticks. The purpose is to be able to monitor the behavior of the currency pair during fast markets, such as occur before and during news announcements. It’s useful for indicating times of increased danger, and can be used as a possible flag to square positions. The parameters are:
  • MA: the number of ticks to average the bid/ask spread over.  The default is set to 30 ticks
  • showTickCount: a boolean flag, which when set t…
Average Bid/Ask MT4 Indicator
This XLS accompanies my guest article on RectitudeMarket.com describing the performance of short option strategies on EURUSD. It includes the relevant formulas and data so that you can replicate the results or apply them to your own option strategies.
Short EURUSD Option Backtest Spreadsheet
In this post I want to cover one of the factors that enters into the creation of the benchmark index outlined in my Trading Approach. This factor is called Value, and provides an underlying fundamental reason for trading various currencies. To explain value let’s assume that the water company Evian sells an identical bottle of water both in the UK and in the US. These two bottles are identical. Same water, same glass bottle, same label, same everything. In essence a tourist from the US coul…
Trading Currencies using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
It’s useful to be able to add a trailing stop to your trades.  Given I never got my head around the MT4 functionality I wrote this small EA, which does the job.  Place it on top of the currency chart and give in the number of pips by which it should trail your trades. You need to put it on currency charts for which you have trades.  So if you have USDJPY trades put the EA on an USDJPY chart. This EA will not trail stops for trades that have a non-zero magic number.  So if you have trad…
MT4 Trailing Stop Expert Advisor
Backtesting and Over-Leverage are the bane of any systematic trader. A shout out to Peter who raised both these points on the previous article in the series: Trading Numbers So, what are the two issues we’ll address in this week’s article:
  • Look ahead bias, and is it really that bad?
  • Kelly is always touted as optimal. Is it really that optimal?
And to all those who don’t like spoilers: (2) will be covered in more detail later in this article series, so close your eyes; but foll…
Dangers of Backtesting, Over-Leverage and the Need for a Protective Stop
Kelly betting is an optimal approach to allocating capital to your system. In this article I want to show you how to apply this approach to your trading, and more importantly what kind of interesting questions you can answer using the ideas behind Kelly betting, in particular: “How long does it take to double my money?” First let’s start out with a simple example and progress to actual markets and trading systems. The example is as follows, and tends to be an interview question for a…
Kelly - What Is It and How to Use It
This is the second article in the series of trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I, we will actually perform some backtests using the results we found in Part I. In Part I, we split up the analysis for long and short trades separately. Here we will keep to this approach. The justification is that there need be no symmetry between the long & short approach. This is especially true for equity systems, where bear markets have distinct dynamics f…
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part II)