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Trading Currencies using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

In this post I want to cover one of the factors that enters into the creation of the benchmark index outlined in my Trading Approach. This factor is called Value, and provides an underlying fundamental reason for trading various currencies. To explain value let’s assume that the water company Evian sells an identical bottle of […]

Testimonials

Most people are familiar with the term ORB (open range breakout). It was popularized by Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout”, as well as the The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (Wiley Trading) by Mark Fisher. ORB uses the price range set at the start of a trading period to determine the future price moves, using a breakout-style approach. In this article we’re going to apply this principle to the FX market using a who…
How to Trade the Start of the Year: Guide to Stress-Free Positioning
Kelly applied to the SPY ETF
This XLS shows the calculations which were performed in the Kelly Criteria article. The data included are the SPY ETF historical prices as well as the backtest results from the London Breakout Strategy applied to the EURUSD. Here you can see how to calculate the optimal leverage on your favourite asset class or your favourite trading strategy.  Please read the article to see what the caveats are and what riding out a full Kelly might possibly lead to.
Kelly Criteria Spreadsheet
This script will allow you to download into a csv file the relevant news events going back to 2007 from ForexFactor. This includes actuals, forecasts, and revisions, as well as time-stamps. It’s a great way to obtain free data that otherwise would cost you an arm and a leg! You might have to install some of the modules required, but this should be straightforward in most Python installs. Happy pattern hunting!!
ForexFactory Python Script
EURUSD tick data for the period 3rd April 2016 to 8th April 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD, 20160403 - 20160408, Broker 1
EURUSD tick data for the period 13th March 2016 to 18th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD, 20160313 - 20160318, Broker 1
This spreadsheet goes in tandem with the article on Trading Like a Hedge Fund Manager.  The charts are replicated in here, as well as the calculations, so you can follow along. The data is taken from finance.yahoo.com for the ETF products SPY, AGG, and GSG. Kelly betting is applied to maximize the returns.
Trading Like a Hedge Fund Manager Spreadsheet
Following on from the previous post on ADP and slippage I’m writing up this brief note to share the pain, and hopefully get the point across: leave the News Alone Please. One of my systems that trades the EURUSD currency pairs actively, operates using stop-orders to enter the market and associated protective stops to limit the losses.  You might have guessed it’s a momentum based strategy.  The issue here is that when the market gaps, or is too thin, the orders won’t get executed.  And this …
Why Slippage Is Important -- Unemployment Impact on My Sanity
Market timing refers to the fact that by judiciously choosing entry and exit methods in a given market you can out-perform buy-and-hold. The first question of course is why you should buy-and-hold in the first place. The idea stems from the equity markets.  Historically they have risen.  The famous chart of course is the S&P 500 over the last 65 years:
S&P 500 since 1965
S&P 500 since 1965
So why should this happen? Economic reasoning is behind this argument.  Long term macro and micro economic gro…
Market Timing