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Why Slippage Is Important — Unemployment Impact on My Sanity

Following on from the previous post on ADP and slippage I’m writing up this brief note to share the pain, and hopefully get the point across: leave the News Alone Please. One of my systems that trades the EURUSD currency pairs actively, operates using stop-orders to enter the market and associated protective stops to limit […]

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Market Reaction to NFPs on 8th January 2016

Following on in the series of Market Dynamics the NFPs presented a great opportunity to take a closer look at what happens during important news events. I’ve learned my lesson by now: don’t trade during news events. And this is especially true of stop orders in these situations. Price will just hop straight through. When […]

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Getting obsessed with news events: the AUDUSD and USDJPY during the 8th Jan PBOC fixing

PBOC fixings have become a fixture (at least for the last couple of days). With the big sell-off in the CSI China is trying to inject liquidity into the market and doing so in different ways. For the FX market it’s been a weakening of the reference rate. Here are the rates over the last […]

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More on Market Dynamics: AUDUSD and the PBOC

It’s only been the fourth trading day of 2016, but there is no shortage of surprises, volatility, and all round mayhem. Today the AUDUSD had two announcements which can be considered relevant. The first was at 00:30GMT, the Building Approvals number, and shortly after 01:15GMT the PBOC rate fixing for the CNY. The first announcement […]

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A Painful Way of Learning NOT to Trade the News: a Lesson for Day Traders: ADP Slippage and the EURUSD

Wouldn’t it be great to forecast what the outcome economic news-releases would be?  News trading is a favourite for many traders, professionals and novice alike. For the long-term trader who holds positions over several days or weeks it might lead to clues as to the next big trend. For intra-day traders it can be a […]

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EURUSD tick data for the period 3rd April 2016 to 8th April 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD, 20160403 - 20160408, Broker 1
Equity Mean Reversion
At last!  We’ve made it to the mean-reverting part of the series, starting with our focus on equities and their mean-reversion habits. So, here’s the deal.  We’re going to keep it simple, just like in the previous three posts, and start from the ground up.  Over the following series we’ll culminate in a simple, straightforward (and well known) system that still works. In detail for this article:
  • What do we mean by mean-reversion and how can we measure it?
  • What are some natural meth…
Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits
This is the third article in the series on trading the Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candle stick patterns. Following on from Part I and Part II, we will look at trading the short signals for AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD. Let’s recap the results for the long side:
  • We used hourly rolling bars to identify the appropriate four-hourly patterns
  • Trading in the direction of the breakout was profitable
  • There was a sweet-spot for holding the trade for roughly 12 hours
  • After usi…
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part III)
Market timing refers to the fact that by judiciously choosing entry and exit methods in a given market you can out-perform buy-and-hold. The first question of course is why you should buy-and-hold in the first place. The idea stems from the equity markets.  Historically they have risen.  The famous chart of course is the S&P 500 over the last 65 years:
S&P 500 since 1965
S&P 500 since 1965
So why should this happen? Economic reasoning is behind this argument.  Long term macro and micro economic gro…
Market Timing
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EURUSD tick data for the period 28th February 2016 to 4th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD , 20160228 – 20160304, Broker1
BEOB_MT4
As discussed in the articles on Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars, this indicator highlights the bars, and allows you to implement those trading strategies. The only input is an offset as to where to put the arrows indicating the bars in pips. This is best placed on an hourly chart.  The indicator will loot at the previous 8 bars, and check to see if the first group of four hourly bars engulfs the previous four hourly bars.  This is then rolled over with every new hourly bar.
Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars