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How to Trade the Start of the Year: Guide to Stress-Free Positioning

Most people are familiar with the term ORB (open range breakout). It was popularized by Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout”, as well as the The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (Wiley Trading) by Mark Fisher. ORB uses the price range set at the […]

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Market Reaction to NFPs on 8th January 2016

Following on in the series of Market Dynamics the NFPs presented a great opportunity to take a closer look at what happens during important news events. I’ve learned my lesson by now: don’t trade during news events. And this is especially true of stop orders in these situations. Price will just hop straight through. When […]

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PBOC fixings have become a fixture (at least for the last couple of days). With the big sell-off in the CSI China is trying to inject liquidity into the market and doing so in different ways. For the FX market it’s been a weakening of the reference rate. Here are the rates over the last couple of days (versus the USD): RMB Of course the market cottoned on to the PBOC’s desperation, and the rout continued. The effect on the Asian time-zone currencies was worth noting. We already covere…
Getting obsessed with news events: the AUDUSD and USDJPY during the 8th Jan PBOC fixing
EURUSD tick data for the period 10th January 2016 to 15th January 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds.  This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD , 20160110 – 20160115, Broker1
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An upcoming recession in the US is on everybody’s mind (at least that’s what Google Trends shows):
Trend of "US Recession" Search on Google
Trend of “US Recession” Search on Google
And with that bad news for the rest of us. To put that chart into context the last official recession according to the NBER was between December 2007 and June 2009. And the average duration between recessions since World War II has been five years, with the longest period being 10 years: between 1991 and 2001. So is it going to happen soon? Proba…
A US Recession or Not - Outlook and Friday's NFPs
I’ve written several articles on what happens during news announcements, and associated quick trading strategies.  But from a regular trader’s perspective, surely there must be another way to approach these things. In this article I’ll given an overview as to how to trade these news announcements in a slightly more leisurely way, and see if there is anything to be had out of trading against market hysteria.  The instrument of choice will be the EURUSD, though you can pick any other inst…
Trading News Announcements Systematically: EURUSD and Non-Farm Payrolls
Following on from the previous post on ADP and slippage I’m writing up this brief note to share the pain, and hopefully get the point across: leave the News Alone Please. One of my systems that trades the EURUSD currency pairs actively, operates using stop-orders to enter the market and associated protective stops to limit the losses.  You might have guessed it’s a momentum based strategy.  The issue here is that when the market gaps, or is too thin, the orders won’t get executed.  And this …
Why Slippage Is Important -- Unemployment Impact on My Sanity
EURUSD tick data for the period 28th February 2016 to 4th March 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD , 20160228 – 20160304, Broker1