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How to Trade the Start of the Year: Guide to Stress-Free Positioning

Most people are familiar with the term ORB (open range breakout). It was popularized by Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout”, as well as the The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (Wiley Trading) by Mark Fisher. ORB uses the price range set at the […]

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Market Reaction to NFPs on 8th January 2016

Following on in the series of Market Dynamics the NFPs presented a great opportunity to take a closer look at what happens during important news events. I’ve learned my lesson by now: don’t trade during news events. And this is especially true of stop orders in these situations. Price will just hop straight through. When […]

Testimonials

Would you like to build consistently profitable trading systems from scratch? This article series does exactly that.  Here are the steps which we’ll work through:
  • Define the underlying principles of a successful trading approach
  • Determine the assets which obey these principles
  • Determine rule sets for trading these assets
  • Work out a straightforward portfolio construction method
That’s the theory. In this article-series we’ll go a step further and look at how to implemen… Read more
Building Consistently Profitable Trading Systems – Principles of a Successful Trading Approach, Part 1
Python Backtesting

Intro

Backtesting is every systematic trader’s basic tool. And Python is becoming the lingua franca of programming. So putting Python into Backtesting to get fast results should be possible!

Yes and no!

In this article, we’ll cover how to really improve your Python backtesting and boost your speeds by several orders of magnitude!

Welcome
Equity Mean Reversion
At last!  We’ve made it to the mean-reverting part of the series, starting with our focus on equities and their mean-reversion habits. So, here’s the deal.  We’re going to keep it simple, just like in the previous three posts, and start from the ground up.  Over the following series we’ll culminate in a simple, straightforward (and well known) system that still works. In detail for this article:
  • What do we mean by mean-reversion and how can we measure it?
  • What are some natural meth… Read more
Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits
Short update on AUDUSD and the AIG Construction index on the 7th January, 2016, 22:30 GMT. There is a reason ForexFactory labelled this as yellow (which seems to be the lowest importance rating they give to news releases). The market was completely comatose, both from a tick count per minute basis, as well as from the perspective of the bid/ask: was wide / stayed wide / couldn’t be bothered. And of course AUDUSD stayed where it was as well. However, both of these are poor indications to dra… Read more
More on AUDUSD dynamics and News Events: what happens when the event is not important?
More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of the New Elite is simply WOW! All I can say is WOW! Mallaby apparently held in excess of 1000 interviews and was given access to emails by some of the main players in the history of hedge funds. If you have read the Market Wizards trilogy, then this book actually fleshes out some of these individuals and provides the historical setting. The book is made up of 14 Chapters, which track the history of hedge funds both chronologically and stylist… Read more
Book Review: More Money Than God
Many people ask if there are any particular technical setups that I like to look at and what the best way to trade them is. My all-time favorite heavily involves Support and Resistance levels, and using these as breakout levels. The art lies in finding them and then managing trades appropriately. In this article we’ll focus on using Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Bars to identify support and resistance levels, and present the analysis that goes behind implementing such a system. Implementati… Read more
Bullish & Bearish Engulfing Bars (Part I)
Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers is Taking Control of Your Profits
Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers – that means actually being able to replicate the results that others produce.  It’s the only way to be sure that you know what’s going on. Well, many people got back after last week’s article asking about the details of the calculations as well as about some of the more technical jargon:
  • What do I mean by asset?
  • What’s an asset bias?
  • What does it mean to risk-adjust returns?
  • How can I go about calculating the charts in the article?
  • How … Read more
Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers