Excellent, funny. Very knowledgeable!
Trading Order Out of Chaos
by
Excellent, funny. Very knowledgeable!
This XLS shows the calculations which were performed in the Kelly Criteria article. The data included are the SPY ETF historical prices as well as the backtest results from the London Breakout Strategy applied to the EURUSD. Here you can see how to calculate the optimal leverage on your favourite asset class or your favourite trading strategy. Please read the article to see what the caveats are and what riding out a full Kelly might possibly lead to.
In this post I want to cover one of the factors that enters into the creation of the benchmark index outlined in my Trading Approach. This factor is called Value, and provides an underlying fundamental reason for trading various currencies. To explain value let’s assume that the water company Evian sells an identical bottle of water both in the UK and in the US. These two bottles are identical. Same water, same glass bottle, same label, same everything. In essence a tourist from the US coul… Read more
PBOC fixings have become a fixture (at least for the last couple of days). With the big sell-off in the CSI China is trying to inject liquidity into the market and doing so in different ways. For the FX market it’s been a weakening of the reference rate. Here are the rates over the last couple of days (versus the USD): Of course the market cottoned on to the PBOC’s desperation, and the rout continued. The effect on the Asian time-zone currencies was worth noting. We already covere… Read more
I’ve written several articles on what happens during news announcements, and associated quick trading strategies. But from a regular trader’s perspective, surely there must be another way to approach these things. In this article I’ll given an overview as to how to trade these news announcements in a slightly more leisurely way, and see if there is anything to be had out of trading against market hysteria. The instrument of choice will be the EURUSD, though you can pick any other inst… Read more
More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of the New Elite is simply WOW! All I can say is WOW! Mallaby apparently held in excess of 1000 interviews and was given access to emails by some of the main players in the history of hedge funds. If you have read the Market Wizards trilogy, then this book actually fleshes out some of these individuals and provides the historical setting. The book is made up of 14 Chapters, which track the history of hedge funds both chronologically and stylist… Read more
Mean Reversion trading works for equities; and currencies. We saw in the last article how combining two simple ideas for equities produced a stable system over the last 30 years. Can we repeat a similar analysis for currencies? Yes! However, be warned. Currency trading is a different magnitude of difficulty to equity trading. Currency traders have had a real tough time since 2008 (take a look at the BTOP Barclay Hedge Currency Trader Index). As always it depends which pond yo… Read more
Backtesting and Over-Leverage are the bane of any systematic trader. A shout out to Peter who raised both these points on the previous article in the series: Trading Numbers So, what are the two issues we’ll address in this week’s article:And to all those who don’t like spoilers: (2) will be covered in more detail later in this article series, so close your eyes; but foll… Read more
- Look ahead bias, and is it really that bad?
- Kelly is always touted as optimal. Is it really that optimal?
Short update on AUDUSD and the AIG Construction index on the 7th January, 2016, 22:30 GMT. There is a reason ForexFactory labelled this as yellow (which seems to be the lowest importance rating they give to news releases). The market was completely comatose, both from a tick count per minute basis, as well as from the perspective of the bid/ask: was wide / stayed wide / couldn’t be bothered. And of course AUDUSD stayed where it was as well. However, both of these are poor indications to dra… Read more