Momentum Look Ahead Bias
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Trading Order Out of Chaos
EURUSD tick data for the period 10th January 2016 to 15th January 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
In the previous article we set out to cover a new asset class: Bond investments. We saw how by including bonds together with stocks we could improve on our portfolio performance. Is this mixture still good given that we are now shifting in the interest rate cycle to a Bond Bear Market? In this article we go about calculating the Bond Index going back 120 years to answer this question. Here is a chart since 1960 of US 1 and 10 year rates: W… Read more
A favorite investment technique that has been publicized widely is trend-following. Everybody has heard of the Turtle Traders, a group of novices trained by Richard Dennis in the art of channel-breakouts, a system developed decades earlier by Richard Donchian. In this article we will look at the current performance of trend-following in the Western futures markets, and see if we can’t find better performance in other markets. As previous mentor of mine always said: it’s not so much ab… Read more
I’ve written several articles on what happens during news announcements, and associated quick trading strategies. But from a regular trader’s perspective, surely there must be another way to approach these things. In this article I’ll given an overview as to how to trade these news announcements in a slightly more leisurely way, and see if there is anything to be had out of trading against market hysteria. The instrument of choice will be the EURUSD, though you can pick any other inst… Read more
I’ve been asked lots of questions as to how to determine the next moves in GBPUSD. There have been many arguments for a bottoming out at the current levels, as well as for a continuation given the strength of the downward move experienced post Brexit. In this article I’ll try to get a handle on possible outcomes, by looking at some fundamental indicators and see where they point to for sterling over the next couple of months. The longer term perspective will be more difficult to gau… Read more
Mean Reversion trading works for equities; and currencies. We saw in the last article how combining two simple ideas for equities produced a stable system over the last 30 years. Can we repeat a similar analysis for currencies? Yes! However, be warned. Currency trading is a different magnitude of difficulty to equity trading. Currency traders have had a real tough time since 2008 (take a look at the BTOP Barclay Hedge Currency Trader Index). As always it depends which pond yo… Read more
PBOC fixings have become a fixture (at least for the last couple of days). With the big sell-off in the CSI China is trying to inject liquidity into the market and doing so in different ways. For the FX market it’s been a weakening of the reference rate. Here are the rates over the last couple of days (versus the USD): Of course the market cottoned on to the PBOC’s desperation, and the rout continued. The effect on the Asian time-zone currencies was worth noting. We already covere… Read more
In Part 1 we used simple Python to Improve our Backtesting times. Starting out with DataFrames we took a simple RSI strategy over a period of 7000 days and reduced from 7.3 seconds (which is a complete joke; sorry Pandas!) down to 0.003 seconds by converting everything to lists. But if you recall the comparison table at the end of Part 1
Implementation Time for RSI2 Backtests Python – Lists 0.003s Java 0.00005s C 0.…
EURUSD tick data for the period 27th March 2016 to 1st April 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
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