Trading NFP Hysteria
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Trading Order Out of Chaos
In this week’s article I cover the right approach to benchmarking your performance using the standard risk measures out there. In particular we’ll start out by outlining how the Sharpe Ratio relates to the usual performance measures such as Win/Loss ration or Return/Maximum Draw-Down ratios. This will allow you to see if you are on track or not, and adjust your trading accordingly. The purpose is to put risk measurement into context and relate your trading statistics to optimal wealth accum… Read more
I’ve written several articles on what happens during news announcements, and associated quick trading strategies. But from a regular trader’s perspective, surely there must be another way to approach these things. In this article I’ll given an overview as to how to trade these news announcements in a slightly more leisurely way, and see if there is anything to be had out of trading against market hysteria. The instrument of choice will be the EURUSD, though you can pick any other inst… Read more
“Greed is good”, but one shouldn’t always assume that the counterparty won’t notice. Last Wednesday, 27th January 2016, was FOMC day, news event day, and the markets went ape. Following on from the previous articles the idea was to continue to exploit the observed quote outages and extract value. Turns out that (presumably as expected), brokers aren’t that slow on their feet. I was moved from B-book status (i.e. rookie / loser status) to A-book status. Let’s just say that exces… Read more
EURUSD tick data for the period 3rd April 2016 to 8th April 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Short update on AUDUSD and the AIG Construction index on the 7th January, 2016, 22:30 GMT. There is a reason ForexFactory labelled this as yellow (which seems to be the lowest importance rating they give to news releases). The market was completely comatose, both from a tick count per minute basis, as well as from the perspective of the bid/ask: was wide / stayed wide / couldn’t be bothered. And of course AUDUSD stayed where it was as well. However, both of these are poor indications to dra… Read more
Would you like to build consistently profitable trading systems from scratch? This article series does exactly that. Here are the steps which we’ll work through:That’s the theory. In this article-series we’ll go a step further and look at how to implemen… Read more
- Define the underlying principles of a successful trading approach
- Determine the assets which obey these principles
- Determine rule sets for trading these assets
- Work out a straightforward portfolio construction method
In the previous article we set out to cover a new asset class: Bond investments. We saw how by including bonds together with stocks we could improve on our portfolio performance. Is this mixture still good given that we are now shifting in the interest rate cycle to a Bond Bear Market? In this article we go about calculating the Bond Index going back 120 years to answer this question. Here is a chart since 1960 of US 1 and 10 year rates: W… Read more
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