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Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits

Equities and Their Mean Reversion Habits

At last!  We’ve made it to the mean-reverting part of the series, starting with our focus on equities and their mean-reversion habits. So, here’s the deal.  We’re going to keep it simple, just like in the previous three posts, and start from the ground up.  Over the following series we’ll culminate in a simple, straightforward […]

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Dangers of Backtesting, Over-Leverage and the Need for a Protective Stop

Dangers of Backtesting, Over-Leverage and the Need for a Protective Stop

Backtesting and Over-Leverage are the bane of any systematic trader. A shout out to Peter who raised both these points on the previous article in the series: Trading Numbers So, what are the two issues we’ll address in this week’s article: Look ahead bias, and is it really that bad? Kelly is always touted as […]

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Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers

Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers

Taking Control of Your Trading Numbers – that means actually being able to replicate the results that others produce.  It’s the only way to be sure that you know what’s going on. Well, many people got back after last week’s article asking about the details of the calculations as well as about some of the […]

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Building Consistently Profitable Trading Systems – Principles of a Successful Trading Approach, Part 1

Building Consistently Profitable Trading Systems – Principles of a Successful Trading Approach, Part 1

Would you like to build consistently profitable trading systems from scratch? This article series does exactly that.  Here are the steps which we’ll work through: Define the underlying principles of a successful trading approach Determine the assets which obey these principles Determine rule sets for trading these assets Work out a straightforward portfolio construction method […]

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Most people are familiar with the term ORB (open range breakout). It was popularized by Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout”, as well as the The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness (Wiley Trading) by Mark Fisher. ORB uses the price range set at the start of a trading period to determine the future price moves, using a breakout-style approach. In this article we’re going to apply this principle to the FX market using a who… Read more
How to Trade the Start of the Year: Guide to Stress-Free Positioning
Kelly betting is an optimal approach to allocating capital to your system. In this article I want to show you how to apply this approach to your trading, and more importantly what kind of interesting questions you can answer using the ideas behind Kelly betting, in particular: “How long does it take to double my money?” First let’s start out with a simple example and progress to actual markets and trading systems. The example is as follows, and tends to be an interview question for a… Read more
Kelly - What Is It and How to Use It
Market timing refers to the fact that by judiciously choosing entry and exit methods in a given market you can out-perform buy-and-hold. The first question of course is why you should buy-and-hold in the first place. The idea stems from the equity markets.  Historically they have risen.  The famous chart of course is the S&P 500 over the last 65 years:
S&P 500 since 1965
S&P 500 since 1965
So why should this happen? Economic reasoning is behind this argument.  Long term macro and micro economic gro… Read more
Market Timing
Mean Reversion and Market Regimes
In this second part of the Mean-Reversion in Equities series we’ll cover the reasons behind why mean reversion works in various market regimes. In the previous article we combined the idea of looking at two consecutive down-days combined with buying the S&P 500 while it was below its five day moving average. A question that stands out: why does it work so well?  And, will it ever stop? The answer to this question lies at the heart of developing good trading strategies.  

What’s a … Read more

Equities Mean Reversion and Market Regimes
EURUSD tick data for the period 21st February 2016 to 26th February 2016. Zip file contains CSV files for each day. The format of the CSV files are: Local Time, Server Time, Server Time Milliseconds, Bid, Ask. The time resolution is in seconds. This means that there can be multiple quotes per second.
Tick Data EURUSD , 20160221 – 20160226, Broker1
High Frequency trading has become both the poster-boy and the scapegoat over the last couple of years in trading circles. It’s been seen as a sure-fire way of making money, as well as a sneaky way the flash-boys tax all the other participants in the market. In this article I want to cover some of the basics of High-Frequency Trading, as well as how it applies to trading from your “Living Room.” An example of such trading from your own private realm is the following P&L chart showing profits i… Read more
High-Frequency Trading from your Living Room
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Investing in Bonds
Of all things on this planet?!  Aren’t they boring?  Not explosive enough?  Isn’t this stuff what old people invest in?  Also, aren’t they supposed to start to sell-off?  And how do you get your hands on these over the counter instruments. In the first article of this series on Creating Profitable Trading Strategies  we started with the premise that you need to look at assets and their underlying biases. We covered equities.  They’re exciting.  Buffett makes 19.1% a year on them.  An… Read more
Why Would You Want to Invest in Bonds?
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